In a new article for the Texas National Security Review, "Lost Seoul? Assessing Pyongyang’s Other Deterrent," Elliott School Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs Nicholas D. Anderson and his co-author, Dartmouth Professor Daryl G. Press, examine North Korea's ability to coerce South Korea militarily. They ask the question: "Does North Korea’s artillery actually pose an existential threat to the South Korean capital?" And they answer with a thorough assessment of the consequences of an artillery exchange on the Korean Peninsula.
Finding that, "South Korea’s military modernization, as well as its extensive civil defense preparations, have greatly reduced the threat of North Korean artillery," they note, "North Korea's artillery is far weaker than public perception." This could, they argue, lessen the likelihood of North Korea provoking a conflict--assuming Pyongyang truly understands its "military frailty." However, they caution, "...that the weakening position of the North Korean military not only reduces crisis stability (especially the temptation for South Korea to strike first), but it also enhances the risks of nuclear escalation should conventional war erupt."
For more, check out the complete article available online via open access.