Tara M. Sinclair

Tara M. Sinclair is a macroeconomist and Professor of Economics and International Affairs at the George Washington University.  She earned a B.A. in Foreign Languages from Wheaton College in Wheaton, Illinois, and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Washington University in St. Louis. In 2022-2024 she served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics in the Office of Economic Policy at the Department of Treasury.  Prior to joining the Treasury Department, Sinclair was a senior fellow and former chief economist at job search site Indeed.  She founded the Indeed Hiring Lab and developed original research using Indeed data on labor markets around the world.  Sinclair has also served as a consultant to the World Bank on their economic forecasts.  

Professor Sinclair is the director of the GW Center for Economic Research, which focuses on economic forecasting.   Her research models, explains, and forecasts macroeconomic fluctuations and trends for different countries. She also evaluates forecasts, particularly with respect to their role in policy and decision-making.  Her publications include: "The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate," in the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, "Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach" with Sinchan Mitra in Macroeconomic Dynamics, “Employment Reconciliation and Nowcasting” with Eiji Goto, Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, and Simon van Norden in the Journal of Applied Econometrics, and “Unlocked Potential: Work-from-Home Job Postings in 20 OECD Countries” with Pawel Adrjan, Gabriele Ciminelli, Alexandre Judes, Michael Koelle, and Cyrille Schwellnus in the AEA Papers and Proceedings. She teaches undergraduate and graduate courses in macroeconomics and econometrics.